What we publish, how we earn, what every number means.

What this publication is

SwingProfitAI is an educational and informational publication covering crypto market conditions for BTC, ETH, and SOL. Its sole output is a daily research brief and the public surfaces that support it: a track record of every call we have made, the hypotheses we are testing, and the system's operational status.

We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, or commodity trading adviser, and we do not hold ourselves out as one. Nothing on this site is personalised investment advice. The same brief goes to every reader; no part of it is tailored to your account, your circumstances, or your risk profile.

What every number on this site represents

Three categories of numbers appear on this site. They mean different things, and we want each one labelled clearly.

1. The desk's calibration record. Numbers on the track record page — hit rate, conviction calibration, posture distribution, realised outcomes in "trade-units" (where 1 trade-unit = the risk you would put on a single call; +1 = a 1-for-1 winner, −1 = a stop-out) — describe the system's own historical output, evaluated against market data via a triple-barrier rule. They are not investment returns. No reader earned them, and no reader is guaranteed to earn anything by following the brief. They are presented so a third party can audit whether our published conviction levels track real outcomes.
2. Forecast accuracy on calibration tests. Numbers like 'volatility intervals beat naïve baselines 4/4 out-of-sample' refer to a comparison between the system's vol forecasts and trivial benchmarks (climatology, persistence, random) on held-out historical data. They are calibration evidence. They are not a forecast of future performance.
3. System operating metrics. Numbers on the status page — uptime, watchdog ticks, snapshot exporter runs — are operational health metrics for the data pipeline. They have no relationship to reader returns.

Past calibration does not imply future calibration. Past forecast accuracy does not imply future forecast accuracy. The market is a real adversary; any system can stop working at any time.

How we are paid, and what we are paid for

Current revenue sources, listed exhaustively:

• Nothing. The daily brief is free. There is no paid tier, no premium feed, no signal group, no affiliate link to an exchange, no token we are quietly long, no paid sponsorship in the brief, no per-call kickback, and no managed account.

That will change at some point. When it does, every revenue source goes here first, dated, before any change to the product. The standing commitments around that:

• If we ever introduce a paid tier, the free brief continues to publish the same posture, direction, and conviction as the paid one — the paid tier adds depth, not access to a "real" call.
• If we ever take affiliate compensation from an exchange or wallet, every link will be tagged in-line and disclosed here, verbatim, with the compensation structure described.
• If we ever hold a position in any asset we publish about, the position is disclosed on the relevant brief, before the trading day it covers.
• If we ever accept paid sponsorship in the brief, it is marked at the top of the issue and called sponsored content. No exception.

Conflicts of interest

Conflicts of interest, current state:

• The operator behind @swingprofitai may hold personal positions in BTC, ETH, or SOL. Where any such position would meaningfully bias a published read (size large enough to influence framing), the position is disclosed in the brief itself for the days it could affect.
• The operator does not run a fund, hold third-party capital, or have a fee-paying client who could benefit from the brief moving the market.
• The system does not auto-trade. No execution venue receives signals from us; no API key for any execution endpoint exists on the publishing infrastructure.

What "honest signal output" means in practice

The product's core commitment is that the read we publish is the read we actually hold, with the actual conviction attached. Four standing rules support that:

1. Every call is timestamped at publication and content-hashed. The version on the site today is the version that went out, provable independently. How it works →
2. Every resolved call is appended to the public ledger with its triple-barrier outcome (win, loss, or timeout). Misses are not removed.
3. Every edge claim is named on the hypothesis page, with a deteriorating flag the moment the evidence trends against it.
4. Every operational outage is logged on the status page, including the ones that delayed or skipped a brief.

These are the verification surfaces. If we drift from any of them, the evidence is on the site before we say anything about it.

Risk acknowledgement

Trading crypto involves substantial risk of loss. The market can move adversely faster than any retail trader's execution; positions can be liquidated; tokens can become unsupported; exchanges can fail. None of these risks are removed by reading the brief. Do not allocate capital you cannot afford to lose, and do your own research before any decision.

Privacy

The public site collects no analytics by default. If we add analytics later, the analytics provider goes here, and we document what data is collected, how long it is retained, and what cookies (if any) are dropped. The email newsletter is hosted on Substack; their privacy policy governs the email layer.

Contact & corrections

If you spot an error in the brief, on the public ledger, or in this disclosure: reach the desk at @swingprofitai on X. Corrections to published briefs go on the same page as the original, dated, with the prior version preserved in the per-day archive (see how it works).

Jurisdiction

This site is published by an operator located outside the United States. Where it is accessible from a jurisdiction that restricts unsolicited financial commentary, the publication may not be available; the operator does not target any specific jurisdiction. Readers are responsible for ensuring access complies with their local laws.